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Yet Another Theory of the Fed? Uggh!
The world hardly needs another theory of the Fed, especially so soon after its Jackson Hole symposium. But we have a theory, too, and who knows, ours could be as close to the bulls-eye as any of the...
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Riding the ‘Slide’: Is This What the Next Bear Market Looks Like?
Even as the Fed’s decision makers are beginning to worry less about recession and more about bubbly stock prices, we’re not yet moved by their attempts to curb the market’s enthusiasm. After all, the...
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Where Is That Confounded Recession?
“Ah, excuse me. Oh, will ya excuse me. I’m just trying to find the recession. Has anybody seen the recession?” Ask that question in a roomful of forecasters, and you’ll hear plenty of reasons why...
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Straightforward Calculations on COVID-19 Risks
As recently as two weeks ago, it wasn’t clear which infectious disease experts had the best handle on COVID-19’s likely path. Among the optimists, one operation ran a model in February that showed the...
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